ECB wage tracker suggests slightly higher wage growth in first three quarters of 2027 compared with the full year of 2026
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Update of the ECB's negotiated wage indicator (wage tracker) with agreements signed up to mid-October and the horizon extended to September 2027. It points to somewhat higher negotiated wage growth in 2027 than in 2026.
Key points
- Headline tracker: 2.3% in 2026, 2.7% in H2 2026, 2.8% in H1 2027 and 2.4% in Q3 2027
- Excluding one-off payments: 2.6% in 2026 and an average of 2.8% in the first three quarters of 2027
- Upward revision of around 0.1 pp for H2 2026 and H1 2027 compared with September
- Employee coverage still low for 2027 (31.8% in H1 and 23.3% in Q3)
- The September projections foresaw compensation per employee growth of 3.3% in 2026
Who is affected
Assessment of wage pressures and second-round effects for monetary policy
Deadlines
Next release in December 2026, with a horizon covering all of 2027
Plain-language version
The ECB, the euro area's central bank that sets interest rates, has updated its tracker of wage deals. It expects agreed pay to rise 2.3% in 2026 and a bit more, 2.8%, in the first half of 2027. It watches this because if wages rise a lot, prices can follow, and that affects whether it raises the rates that end up in your mortgage.
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Summary produced with artificial intelligence from the official publication. It may contain errors: always check the original document.
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