Artificial intelligence and European firms: the cost of market-based financing
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Box from Economic Bulletin 7/2026 that measures the exposure of STOXX Europe 600 firms to artificial intelligence using their earnings calls and analyses its effect on the cost of market-based financing. AI-exposed firms earn an equity return premium and pay somewhat lower spreads on their bonds, but this relationship depends on expectations about the technology.
Key points
- Equity return premium of around 1.3 percentage points per quarter for AI-exposed firms, also outside the technology sector
- Bond spreads around 5 basis points tighter and more issuance at maturities above ten years
- 75% of earnings calls mentioning AI refer to product innovation and 50% to productivity gains
- If expectations about AI disappoint, valuations and spreads could reprice abruptly and broadly
Who is affected
Non-financial corporations, equity and corporate bond markets, financial stability
Plain-language version
The ECB has looked at what happens to large European companies that use artificial intelligence. Their shares do better, about 1.3 points more return each quarter, and borrowing through bonds costs them a bit less. But it all depends on what people expect from AI: if it disappoints, those prices could fall sharply.
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Summary produced with artificial intelligence from the official publication. It may contain errors: always check the original document.
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