Economic Bulletin Issue 7, 2026
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The ECB's Economic Bulletin 7/2026, covering the analysis behind the meeting of 29 October, at which the Governing Council kept the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Energy prices continue to rise, posing upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, while underlying inflation remains stable and wages show no material response for now. Financing conditions have tightened since the meeting of 10 September. It includes eight boxes and two articles (industrial policy in the EU and the ECB's climate work).
Key points
- Rates unchanged: deposit facility 2.50%, main refinancing operations 2.65% and marginal lending facility 2.90%
- Inflation rose to 3.8% in September (3.2% in August); energy inflation to 18.9% and services to 3.2%
- Unemployment at 6.4% in August; the economy kept growing in the third quarter, supported by AI-related investment and spending on infrastructure and defence
- Lending to firms: growth of 4.2% in August and September; credit standards tightened in the third quarter; mortgage rates at 3.6% in August
- The wage tracker points to negotiated wages of between 2.5% and 2.8% for the rest of 2026 and an average of 2.6% in the first three quarters of 2027
- Data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no pre-commitment to a rate path; calls for swift agreement on the Single Currency Package (digital euro)
Who is affected
Banks, fixed income markets, firms and households in the euro area
Plain-language version
The ECB, the euro area's central bank, publishes its bulletin with a snapshot of the economy. Prices rose by 3.8% in September, mostly because of energy, and borrowing has become more expensive: mortgage rates are around 3.6%. Even so, the economy keeps growing thanks to investment in artificial intelligence and spending on infrastructure and defence.
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