Main findings from the ECB’s recent contacts with non-financial companies
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Economic Bulletin box summarising the ECB's exchanges with 64 leading non-financial companies between late September and early October. They point to moderate and steady growth, driven by AI, electrification and defence, with stronger price increases in the third quarter and a milder slowdown in wage growth than previously expected.
Key points
- Firms expect wage growth to slow from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.0% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027
- 40% see a risk of higher wage demands due to the rise in inflation, up from 20% in the previous round
- Around 90% of consumer-facing firms have only partly passed on to prices the cost increases from the Middle East conflict
- Employment remains subdued, with cuts in manufacturing
Who is affected
Firms, economic and inflation analysis
Plain-language version
The ECB, the euro area's central bank, spoke to 64 large companies: the economy is growing moderately, helped by AI, electrification and defence. Some 40% fear workers will ask for higher pay because of rising prices, and nearly 90% of consumer firms have only partly passed on higher costs from the Middle East conflict, so some of that may still reach shopping bills.
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Summary produced with artificial intelligence from the official publication. It may contain errors: always check the original document.
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